County population drops; city's soars

Elmore County's overall population fell by seven percent over the past 10 years while the city of Mountain Home saw its numbers spike, according to statistics published by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Numbers released earlier this month from the 2010 Census puts the county's population at 27,038 or 2,092 fewer people than the last survey conducted 10 years ago.

Meanwhile, the number of people living in Mountain Home climbed by roughly 22 percent over the past 10 years with 14,206 now living within the city's limits. At the same time, Glenns Ferry saw an 18 percent drop in population over the same time period, falling from 1,611 in 2000 to 1,319 in 2010.

While he doesn't like to see the county's population drop, County Commissioner Arlie Shaw doesn't see it as a cause for alarm. The last 10 years represented significant changes across the county that seemed to skew the Census results, he said. It's possible these changes in city and county figures were linked, in part, to a handful of significant events over the past decade.

For example, major force restructuring at Mountain Home Air Force Base happened after the last Census in 2000. Ten years ago, the base maintained a complete, combat-ready force of 66 fighters, bombers and support aircraft. The base lost that mission starting in 2002 while retaining three squadrons of 54 fighter jets. When the newest Census began in early 2010, the base was also in the midst of shutting the doors on one of those remaining fighter squadrons.

According to the 2000 Census, the base had a combined population of 8,894, which included active duty personnel and their families. The same geographical area surveyed last year put that number at 3,238.

Meanwhile, a majority of military people and their families lived on the installation in 2000, according to an economic impact statement released by the base. In 2010, that number shifted significantly with more than two-thirds of the base's population living off base due to ongoing demolition and construction in its military housing area.

Over the course of 10 years, available housing on base fell from 1,590 units in 2000 to 1,125 dwellings in 2010. Of those remaining housing units, more than 250 were vacant due to scheduled demolition, according to Census data.

Declining student enrollment at the base in recent years also had a significant impact on the Mountain Home School District, according to district superintendent Tim McMurtrey. A nearly 60 percent drop in registered students at the base since 2001 forced the district to shut down two of its three on-base facilities with its middle school students now bused to town.

In October 1999, the base had 4,590 students enrolled in the school district, with 1,162 living on the installation, according to information released by district officials. In 2008, that number stood at 3,911 school-age children with just 405 living on base.

The shift in city and base population figures is a bit puzzling, according to Mayor Tom Rist. About four years ago, city officials expected the local Census results to put Mountain Home's population around 15,000 people.

But when the state and local economies started to struggle, the city downplayed those original estimates, he said.

"Over the past two years, we thought the Census would come out to around 13,500 or 13,800 (for Mountain Home)," Rist added. This new data is considerably higher than city officials expected.

"We're very pleased that we're showing an increase in population," the mayor said. "I don't look at that anyway as being a negative. I see it as a positive."

Analyzing other Census figures, declining population figures in Glenns Ferry from 2000 to 2010 were likely tied to the closure of the Idahoan Fresh Pak facility, according to Shaw. When the factory closed in 2008, the rural community lost 114 jobs.

As the state and local economies begin to recover, people like Shaw remain cautiously optimistic that a increasing number of companies will look at Elmore County to establish new commercial and industrial outlets here.

His long-range forecast comes as the county's planning and zoning commission recommended approving plans in recent months for alternative energy generating facilities north of Mountain Home and Hammett.

Overall, Idaho saw a 21 percent increase in total population over the past 10 years with the final numbers standing at 1,567,582 people. Nine counties in the state saw sharp spikes in total population with growth rates exceeding 25 percent since 2000.

Elmore County was one of eight counties that lost people over the same time frame.

Additional statistics from the Census Bureau showed slight changes in ethnic diversity across the county over the past decade.

In Mountain Home, the percentage of people from Hispanic or Latino backgrounds rose from 8.3 to 9.5 percent. Of the city's other residents, 3.5 percent were Asian with African Americans making up another 3.4 percent.

Ethnic statistics across Elmore County remained fairly consistent with 12.2 percent of county residents identifying themselves as Hispanic or Latino. Of the county's non-Hispanic residents, 3.3 percent were Asian and 2.8 percent were African American.

According to the statistical "snapshot" conducted during the first quarter of 2010, the Census Bureau reported that more than 16 percent of housing units in the county were listed as vacant. Places like Mountain Home showed 601 unoccupied units with Glenns Ferry adding another 125 to this figure.

Statewide, the percentage of people moving to Idaho fell by more than 7 percent compared to national census figures released 10 years ago when the rate of growth hit 28.5 percent, according to the 2010 Census.

While the state's population jumped to nearly 1.57 million people, it doesn't change its number of federal representatives in Washington, D.C.

However, the neighboring states of Washington, Utah and Nevada each picked up a seat in the House of Representatives.

In terms of total density, the state ranks 46th overall with less than 20 people per square mile.