AAA: Thanksgiving fixins' will beckon 11 percent more travelers this year

BOISE - AAA today projected that 42.2 million Americans, representing an 11.4 percent increase from a year ago will travel during the Thanksgiving holiday, taking a trip at least 50 miles from home.

"While Americans remain cautious with household budgets and discretionary spending amidst high levels of unemployment, many are in a better financial position this Thanksgiving than a year ago," said AAA President and CEO Robert L. Darbelnet. "This improvement, along with a strong desire to spend time with friends and family, is expected to propel a significant increase in Thanksgiving travel."

The travel projections fall well short of the 58.6 million travel trips taken during this holiday's peak in 2005. But the double-digit increase from a year ago is healthy, AAA said, accounting for 4.3 million additional travelers this Thanksgiving.

The travel organization said this increase would signify an important upturn in travel volume for the holiday after a year of negligible growth in 2009 (0.2 percent) and two years after a historic 25.2 percent decline in travel in 2008.

"Travel took a hard hit when the recession struck, but now appears to be outpacing the modest improvements in the overall recovery," said AAA Idaho spokesman Dave Carlson.

AAA's travel projections are based on economic forecasting and research by IHS Global Insight. The complete AAA / IHS Global Insight 2010 Thanksgiving holiday forecast can be found at AAA.com/news.

The Boston-based economic research and consulting firm says that the economy as a whole is expected to have grown 2.2 percent from a year ago. Real disposable income will likely increase 2.5 percent during that time, which means consumers have more money to spend on things like travel.

In addition, Americans are less burdened with debt, and household net worth is expected to register 2.7 percent growth since the fourth quarter of 2009.

"Unfortunately, the job market has not kept pace, so for many unemployed Idahoans, there's plenty of reason to remain guarded, if not a little wary." Even so, Carlson said the unemployment picture is stable, which is an improvement from 2008 and 2009.

Record Share of Auto Travelers

AAA said 94.1 percent of all travelers, or 39.7 million people, will go by car, representing the highest percentage of auto travel share across the five holidays in the travel organization's recorded history. This is an increase of 12 percent from last Thanksgiving when 35.5 million Americans reached their destination by motor vehicle.

Oil prices closed at $87.81 two days last week, the first time since October 2008 that they have been that high. That helped push the national average price for a gallon regular grade gasoline to $2.90, up 22 cents since Labor Day, and 26 cents more than the $2.64 annual price from a year ago.

The Gem State's Thanksgiving price is $2.94. That's up 26 cents from a year ago when the average price was $2.68. Idaho's average price has not moved more than a nickel from its current average since the second week in August.

"On average, Idahoans have been paying 16 cents a gallon more each month this year than the rest of the country," Carlson said. "They're likely thankful our average price is now within shouting distance of the rest of the country."

AAA said the real and perceived value of auto travel as a cost-effective way to get to a holiday destination is causing a greater migration of holiday travelers to this mode.

Leisure air travel is expected to account for four percent of overall travel during this holiday, with 1.62 million holiday flyers. That represents at 3.5 percent increase from last year's 1.57 million flyers. Trips by other modes, including rail, bus and watercraft will be the dominant means of travel used by two percent of all travelers.

Domestic airlines have added more capacity following increased travel demand this year. But that same increased demand means air travelers will face higher average air fares versus a year ago.

Miscellaneous Observations

Travel generated by Idaho and Mountain states is nearly on par with projections with the year-over-year comparisons with the rest of the country. Idaho and Mountain states (AZ, CO, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY) should experience a 10.7 percent regional increase compared to the 11.4 percent U.S. average. But these states should see a greater percent of the population (13.7 percent vs. 13.5 percent U.S) traveling during the holiday period.

Based on a survey of traveler intentions, the average distance traveled by Americans this Thanksgiving holiday is expected to be 816 miles, virtually the same as one year ago (815 miles). Median spending is expected to be $495, nearly the same as last year's $494.

Travel Safe, Travel Smart

AAA Idaho offers the following advice for holiday travelers:

*Plan ahead. Get point-to-point driving directions, gas station locations and prices, maps, and aids before you go. Much of this information is available to the public at www.AAA.com.

*Prepare your vehicle. Have your vehicle checked by a qualified technician. Check tires, batteries and fluid levels. Take a winter driving kit, including such items as jumper cables, traction mats, water, blankets, a flashlight (with new batteries) and a cell phone (with charged battery).

*Buckle Up. Follow all post speed limits and obey all traffic laws.

*Prepare yourself. Dress in layers and dress according to your destination. Let someone know when you're leaving, where you're going, and when you expect to arrive.

*Dial 511 and go to www.511.idaho.gov for road conditions and other traveler services.